Can Facebook Predict the GOP Nomination?

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Last week, the Iowa Ames Straw Poll proved to be the first test for the Republican presidential hopefuls. However, it is only symbolic and has historically proven to be a poor indicator of who will be nominated by the GOP. To put it a different way, the Iowa Ames Straw Poll is like a piece of litmus paper where acids and bases both turn the same color. But can Facebook serve as a better indicator of who will be the GOP nomination? By seeing the amount of likes for each politician, we can get a better view of America’s true feelings towards these presidential hopefuls.

Don’t Have a Chance in Hell

These candidates are so far behind in likes, it will be a near impossible task for them to garner the necessary support by the time primary and caucus season rolls around.

13. Buddy Roemer
Former Governor of Louisiana
3,140 likes

12. Rudy Giuliani (possible candidate)
Former Mayor of New York City
3,587 likes
*This number is lower than it should be as Giuliani’s Facebook page is mislabeled as actor/director

11. Jon Huntsman
Former Governor of Utah, Former Ambassador to China and Singapore
11,114 likes

10. Thaddeus McCotter
U.S. Representative from Michigan
12,361 likes

9. Rick Santorum
Former Senator from Pennsylvania
26,040 likes

Dark Horses

These candidates appear to have some support, but need giant jumps in support to win the GOP nomination.

8. Tim Pawlenty (dropped out)
Former Governor of Minnesota
103,289 likes

7. Rick Perry
Governor of Texas
124,804 likes
*This number is lower than predicted since Perry recently entered the presidential race. However, he is in his third term as Texas Governor and has been a possible GOP candidate since the beginning of the year. This number still proves that Perry support is much lower than the media would like you to believe.

6. Newt Gingrich
Former Speaker of the House, U.S. Representative from Georgia
146,105 likes

5. Herman Cain
Ex-CEO of Godfather’s Pizza
166,035 likes


Serious Candidates

These three candidates have a strong possibility of winning the 2012 GOP nomination for President, according to Facebook.

4. Ron Paul
U.S. Representative from Texas
One group with 462,675 likes and another group with 225,765 likes
688,440 total likes

3. Michele Bachmann
U.S. Representative from Minnesota
One group with 461,365 likes and another group with 275,197 likes
736,562 total likes

2. Mitt Romney
Former Governor of Massachusetts
1,084,359 likes

Facebook’s Prediction for the 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate

This candidate EASILY wins the mock Facebook election with over a 2 million vote lead.

1. Sarah Palin (possible candidate)
Former Governor of Alaska, 2008 Vice Presidential candidate
3,226,554 likes

Some of you may argue that Palin only has this many likes due to people who enjoy laughing at her. Palin would have to lose many Facebook supporters for this to be true. Over 2 million people, or 2/3 of her Facebook supporters, would have to be people who enjoy laughing at her. The same can certainly be said about Michele Bachmann and even Ron Paul, so this argument is certainly not valid. Sarah is the only Republican on this list to have a group that is strongly against her, but this group only totals 216,700 supporters. Even when you deduct this number, Sarah easily comes out on top. So if Facebook is any indicator, we should be seeing a Palin/Romney showdown in 2012 with Palin coming out on top.

Compared to Obama?

Barack Obama
44th President of the United States
22,512,468 likes

President Obama clearly has numbers skewed in his favor. Being President, many people will like his page just because of this fact. But for Obama to not be the favorite in 2012, 86% of the people who like his page would have to like it just due to the fact that he is President of the United States. I can safely say that this percentage is not that high. For a comparison, George W. Bush only has 1,590,950 likes on Facebook. The GOP has a difficult task to accomplish if they want to make Obama a one term president.

 

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