Can Facebook Predict the GOP Nomination?

Author: August 17, 2011 8:48 pm

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Last week, the Iowa Ames Straw Poll proved to be the first test for the Republican presidential hopefuls. However, it is only symbolic and has historically proven to be a poor indicator of who will be nominated by the GOP. To put it a different way, the Iowa Ames Straw Poll is like a piece of litmus paper where acids and bases both turn the same color. But can Facebook serve as a better indicator of who will be the GOP nomination? By seeing the amount of likes for each politician, we can get a better view of America’s true feelings towards these presidential hopefuls.

Don’t Have a Chance in Hell

These candidates are so far behind in likes, it will be a near impossible task for them to garner the necessary support by the time primary and caucus season rolls around.

13. Buddy Roemer
Former Governor of Louisiana

12. Rudy Giuliani (possible candidate)
Former Mayor of New York City
*This number is lower than it should be as Giuliani’s Facebook page is mislabeled as actor/director

11. Jon Huntsman
Former Governor of Utah, Former Ambassador to China and Singapore

10. Thaddeus McCotter
U.S. Representative from Michigan

9. Rick Santorum
Former Senator from Pennsylvania

Dark Horses

These candidates appear to have some support, but need giant jumps in support to win the GOP nomination.

8. Tim Pawlenty (dropped out)
Former Governor of Minnesota

7. Rick Perry
Governor of Texas
*This number is lower than predicted since Perry recently entered the presidential race. However, he is in his third term as Texas Governor and has been a possible GOP candidate since the beginning of the year. This number still proves that Perry support is much lower than the media would like you to believe.

6. Newt Gingrich
Former Speaker of the House, U.S. Representative from Georgia

5. Herman Cain
Ex-CEO of Godfather’s Pizza

Serious Candidates

These three candidates have a strong possibility of winning the 2012 GOP nomination for President, according to Facebook.

4. Ron Paul
U.S. Representative from Texas
One group with 462,675 likes and another group with 225,765 likes
688,440 total likes

3. Michele Bachmann
U.S. Representative from Minnesota
One group with 461,365 likes and another group with 275,197 likes
736,562 total likes

2. Mitt Romney
Former Governor of Massachusetts

Facebook’s Prediction for the 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate

This candidate EASILY wins the mock Facebook election with over a 2 million vote lead.

1. Sarah Palin (possible candidate)
Former Governor of Alaska, 2008 Vice Presidential candidate

Some of you may argue that Palin only has this many likes due to people who enjoy laughing at her. Palin would have to lose many Facebook supporters for this to be true. Over 2 million people, or 2/3 of her Facebook supporters, would have to be people who enjoy laughing at her. The same can certainly be said about Michele Bachmann and even Ron Paul, so this argument is certainly not valid. Sarah is the only Republican on this list to have a group that is strongly against her, but this group only totals 216,700 supporters. Even when you deduct this number, Sarah easily comes out on top. So if Facebook is any indicator, we should be seeing a Palin/Romney showdown in 2012 with Palin coming out on top.

Compared to Obama?

Barack Obama
44th President of the United States

President Obama clearly has numbers skewed in his favor. Being President, many people will like his page just because of this fact. But for Obama to not be the favorite in 2012, 86% of the people who like his page would have to like it just due to the fact that he is President of the United States. I can safely say that this percentage is not that high. For a comparison, George W. Bush only has 1,590,950 likes on Facebook. The GOP has a difficult task to accomplish if they want to make Obama a one term president.


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facebook comments:


  • David J. Alsberge

    I’m calling the ticket ‘Perry-Bachmann 2012’ just because the Republicans will think it sounds like a good slogan, and that’s more logic than they put into most of their decisions.

    • I tend to agree. GOP-supporters this election cycle want the most radical and irrational people they can possibly find. That combo is one of the most irrational in history.

  • Sarah Palin will announce her candidacy sometime in September. From that time on Hurricane Sarah will sweep everything – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and the Republican nomination. Of course my Aunt Emma could beat Obama in 2012. He has been the biggest failure I have seen in my lifetime. I suspect he will get primaried and we may have a Clinton – Palin final. Palin will prevail.

    • ‘Biggest failure’ is totally inaccurate. The killing of bin Laden, who Bush disregarded, is not a failure. The resurrection of the economy out of a near Depression is not a failure. The passing of the REFORM of the health care insurance industry is not a failure. Finally following thru and getting us out of Iraq – that irresponsible and ridiculous war – is not a failure. Signing off on the end of DADT is not a failure. Saving the US auto industry is not a failure. ETC. ETC.

      You must have been living on Neptune for the last 3 or so years.

  • No. Simple answer to a simple question. There is one factor that you really haven’t completely addressed.
    How many FB groups support a particular candidate? This would be in addition to the candidates main FB site. Take some time to figure that out, then come back with an update.

    Next, you can find out how many websites support a particular candidate.

    Heck, why not make it your mission to find out the numbers on all social media sites.

  • Only one candidate has the experience, the leadership, and a proven track record of cutting spending and running an efficient, bi-partisan government. You know who she is. The rest is all spin.

  • Of COURSE Sarah Palin is going to be the Republican nominee. She has the most experience as a Chief Executive,and a record of excellence that no other has.

    Mayor/City Manager
    President, Alaska Council of Mayors,
    Chairman, Alaska Oil and Gas Compact Commission (one of the most powerful jobs in the state)
    Governor (constitutionally the second most powerful governor in the country)
    Chairman of the nation’s Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission.

    That plus she will destroy Obama. She’s been whipping him like a rented mule since 2008. She will rip him to shreds in the debates just as she did to the sitting Republican governor of Alaska in 2006, to win the primary in a landslide, and a popular former democrat governor to take the office.

    Even better, like 2010, she will bring a lot of down ticket Republicans with her. We’ll gain seats in the House and take back the Senate in a big way.

    Palin will do like she did in Alaska and go after corrupt politicians IN BOTH PARTIES, and get control of run-away government. She left Alaska with a $12 billion surplus.

    Steve Bannon has said “What Sarah Palin did in Alaska is a Harvard Business School case study on how to turn a government around.”

    After President Palin’s two terms they will be writing a case study of how to turn a nation around.

    • David J. Alsberge

      Not sure why you would think a proven moron who had to resign office halfway through 1 term to avoid being prosecuted for abuse of power should even be allowed to vote, let alone hold any elective office, but there is probably no one less qualified to be hired for anything, including dogcatcher.
      Also not sure how you expect someone who can’t/doesn’t read to even begin to debate against a constitutional law professor, but I’m sure it’ll make good SNL fodder.
      After the Democrats left the White House with NO defecit, a balanced budget, and approaching a cash surplus, ALL of which the Republicans pissed away, there’s NOTHING ANY Republican can do that will make up for what they cost the US, unless of course they want to pay all the money they stole in order to put us $14 Trillion in debt BACK.
      Even 1 term of any Republican, will, at this point, be sufficient to complete the destruction of this country which they have been so hell-bent upon for decades. So, my only response is that Republicans are a mixture of morons and traitors, ALL of whom should be deported, the Republican party BANNED, and we REAL AMERICANS will clean up the mess the Republicans caused without anymore of their interference.

  • Obama could beat Palin without even campaigning. I really don’t think the American people are stupid enough to elect that ignorant, psychotic cow!

    • Kenneth Stice

      Unfortunately Bachmann is just as ignorant and psychotic, while Paul is just as crazy! And Romney is pretty corrupt, he’s just more sly about it than your usual GOP member.

  • obama will win easily. no matter who the GOP decides upon.

  • I’m not sure counting the number of “likes” on a candidate’s page is any indicator whatsoever. I “like” several GOP candidates’ pages, but only so I can make comments that expose their true colors. I’m certainly not a supporter of any of those right-wing TP whackos.

    • The article itself discounts its own credibility, and certainly it’s “unscentific.’ Gut, then, so is the Ames Straw Poll. (I mean, honestly– it’s held simultaneously with the Iowa State Fair, and the candidates routinely pay people’s $15 entry fee in exchange for a vote. Neither is a particularly good indicator of an election– and besides, there hasn’t BEEN a presidential campaign since Facebook was nearly such a big deal, so really, there’s no historical reference to speak of. I really think the most telling number is the BO number (over 21 million “likes”) … that’s WAY more than all the Republican candidates combined.

  • If this is right — and we’ll be coming back to this in 15 months, no fear of that — then Facebook will win an award for successfully predicting a presidential outcome WELL in advance, not to mention a VERY positive outcome if the showdown does come to Obama v Palin.

  • Man, if only it were that easy…haha

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