Can Facebook Predict the GOP Nomination?

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Last week, the Iowa Ames Straw Poll proved to be the first test for the Republican presidential hopefuls. However, it is only symbolic and has historically proven to be a poor indicator of who will be nominated by the GOP. To put it a different way, the Iowa Ames Straw Poll is like a piece of litmus paper where acids and bases both turn the same color. But can Facebook serve as a better indicator of who will be the GOP nomination? By seeing the amount of likes for each politician, we can get a better view of America’s true feelings towards these presidential hopefuls.


Serious Candidates

These three candidates have a strong possibility of winning the 2012 GOP nomination for President, according to Facebook.

4. Ron Paul
U.S. Representative from Texas
One group with 462,675 likes and another group with 225,765 likes
688,440 total likes

3. Michele Bachmann
U.S. Representative from Minnesota
One group with 461,365 likes and another group with 275,197 likes
736,562 total likes

2. Mitt Romney
Former Governor of Massachusetts
1,084,359 likes

Facebook’s Prediction for the 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate

This candidate EASILY wins the mock Facebook election with over a 2 million vote lead.

1. Sarah Palin (possible candidate)
Former Governor of Alaska, 2008 Vice Presidential candidate
3,226,554 likes

Some of you may argue that Palin only has this many likes due to people who enjoy laughing at her. Palin would have to lose many Facebook supporters for this to be true. Over 2 million people, or 2/3 of her Facebook supporters, would have to be people who enjoy laughing at her. The same can certainly be said about Michele Bachmann and even Ron Paul, so this argument is certainly not valid. Sarah is the only Republican on this list to have a group that is strongly against her, but this group only totals 216,700 supporters. Even when you deduct this number, Sarah easily comes out on top. So if Facebook is any indicator, we should be seeing a Palin/Romney showdown in 2012 with Palin coming out on top.

Compared to Obama?

Barack Obama
44th President of the United States
22,512,468 likes

President Obama clearly has numbers skewed in his favor. Being President, many people will like his page just because of this fact. But for Obama to not be the favorite in 2012, 86% of the people who like his page would have to like it just due to the fact that he is President of the United States. I can safely say that this percentage is not that high. For a comparison, George W. Bush only has 1,590,950 likes on Facebook. The GOP has a difficult task to accomplish if they want to make Obama a one term president.

 

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