Mitt Romney is getting nervous. After seemingly securing a landslide victory In South Carolina, Romney has had an awful week that has caused his numbers to plummet. So much so, that his main rival, Newt Gingrich, has taken the lead in multiple polls, including a Clemson University Poll that shows Gingrich in the lead with 32%. Romney has 26%. The poll was released only 24 hours before the vote. Even New York Times pollster Nate Silver gave Gingrich an 87% chance of winning South Carolina by a 10 point margin. That’s a strong prediction.
If these numbers hold true, and Newt Gingrich does indeed win South Carolina, which I believe he will, it shows how weak Mitt Romney really is. Many conservatives and Tea Party supporters are firmly against Romney, believing him to be a moderate. That’s bad news for Romney, especially in the South.
This isn’t that surprising when you consider the bad week Romney has had. He has been hammered consistently for not releasing his tax returns and was even booed during a GOP Debate earlier this week when he danced around whether he would release multiple years of returns. Romney is also taking heat for admitting that he only pays a 15% tax rate, which is lower than what most ordinary Americans pay, and is taking hits because of reports that he has millions of dollars stashed in an offshore account in the Cayman Islands.
All of this has drained the energy out of the Romney campaign in South Carolina. So Mitt Romney has apparently had to bus in supporters from Virginia and Washington DC to add energy to Romney rallies on primary day, though a Romney spokesman has denied this. Most of these supporters are Mormon students from Brigham Young University. That’s why you’re seeing more energetic crowds at Romney events today.
Two weeks ago, Romney had a 19 point lead over Gingrich and because he has dodged questions about his taxes, South Carolinians are swinging to Gingrich because they believe Romney has something he is trying to hide. Even if Romney loses and does manage to secure the nomination anyway, it’s clear that conservatives are not that energetic about him, and that’s good news for President Obama. Stay tuned for more South Carolina primary news and updates, including the results of today’s vote.
It’s not exactly reassuring to see that Lee Atwater’s “southern strategy” is alive and well. Romney has his issues but, ultimately, Gingrich succeeded by appealing to fear and bigotry.
The “Not Romney” crowd came out in droves to show how backwards and out of touch the TEA, GOP, Republicans are! The hate mongers have corrupted the Republican party which once stood proudly, and now sinks into the abyss. It’s going to be a long and tiring road for these guys.
All Republicans succeed, where they do, by appealing to fear and bigotry. And greed. Positive motivations are dangerous for their goals, so they tend to avoid them.
Uh, wait, that was supposed to be a reply to the comment above yours. Sorry if it seems a bit irrelevant. D:
… Breaking Wind Newt blows passed Mitt. like a breath of foul air… Newt stopped short of putting on the sheet and pointy hat but, I,m sure he had it handy…
………Breaking Wind… }= Newt blows past Mitt to win… Newt stopped just short of putting on the sheet and pointy hat but I,m sure he had it on hand…
“Even New York Times pollster Nate Silver gave Gingrich an 87% chance of winning South Carolina by a 10 point margin.”
Correction: Nate Silver gave Gingrich an 87% chance of winning. Nate Silver predicts the margin will be about 10 points. Silver did NOT say there was an 87% that the outcome would be exactly Gingrich +10. He gave Gingrich 87% and Romney 13%, so obviously that 87% is for the sum of all possible outcomes that have Gingrich ahead by any amount. The 10-point margin is just based on the expected averages across all outcomes. Look at the width of the error bars around the predicted vote percentages in this graph and it will make more sense: amount.http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/01/21/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0121-SCoverview1/fivethirtyeight-0121-SCoverview1-blog480.png