As the Presidential Campaign moves forward after the Republican and Democratic Conventions, the most recent Gallup Poll shows that President Obama’s approval has now risen to 52% and, he now leads Romney among Registered Voters 48%-45%, garnering an early post-convention bounce. The Poll does not yet account for the impact of the Thursday night speeches by Obama, Vice President Joe Biden or Senator John Kerry, who delivered a scathing attack on Romney’s foreign policy experience.
While the lackluster Republican Convention was marked by the bizarre, nationally televised spectacle of a bewildered old man talking to a chair and tepid speeches, without any substance, the Democrats have so far gained a modest “convention bounce” from the mid-week, stellar speeches given, such as the Keynote address by San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, the passionate message by Michelle Obama and the detail-laden and brilliant performance by former President Bill Clinton in Charlotte.
With both the Republican Party and Democratic Party Conventions now over, presidential polling begins in earnest moving into the final two months of campaigning and quickly toward the three all-important presidential debates, which may help decide this election. While the August jobs report was largely disappointing, with only 96,000 private-sector jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping only marginally from 8.3% to 8.1%, the analysis has focused on the impact of the party conventions on the state of the race.
The ‘Ad Wars’ now also begin in earnest:
“Mitt Romney’s swing-state ad spend looks like a loser’s strategy,” according to an article published Friday, in Britain’s The Guardian. The Romney Campaign has apparently shifted gears slightly and is unleashing a $4.5 million ad buy in eight key swing states, all but abandoning some states where polling has generally shown Obama leading and with historical trends favoring Democrats, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, a state that has always been “fools gold” for Republican presidential candidates.
Wisconsin is another state that has historically favored Democrats, but Republicans there have been buoyed somewhat by the unsuccessful recall of Governor Scott Walker and, of course, it is the home state of Republican V.P. Candidate, Paul Ryan. It should be noted, however, that – while Ryan has easily won election to six-terms in his House of Representatives District – his statewide appeal has never been tested.
The article portrays a current Electoral Map, and indicates…
By that map, President Obama holds a clear advantage – with 247 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 191. Obama has 18 ways to reach 270 electoral votes, while Romney can name only 11 winning combinations. The arithmetic also dictates that Romney must win the state of Florida. If he doesn’t, Obama has won a second term.
None of the various Romney “paths to victory” look easy, as all eight swing states – Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire – went for Obama in 2008 and, despite unemployment still hovering north of 8% nationwide (the “elephant in the room” for Obama), those figures are markedly better in Iowa, Virginia and in Ohio, where Obama also benefits from the resurgence of the auto industry.
The Guardian writer continues:
I wouldn’t be surprised if Romney’s own polling deters him from spending much time and money in Pennsylvania, but Michigan and especially Wisconsin ought to be worth the expenditure and effort. Ad buy allocations in these states will, if nothing else, force Obama to use resources of his own there.
Romney’s spokeswoman, Andrea Saul, insists that the Romney team isn’t giving up on Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. We’ll watch to see if Romney is willing to back up that statement with media buying.
Right now, though, the smart money says that Romney’s advertising spending looks like that of a losing team.
Of course it’s still two months until Election Day and there are three presidential debates yet to come, thousands and thousands of campaign miles, and hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent blitzing the air waves, so all of these projections and prognostications are subject to change. Another Electoral College Map by “270towin.com” shows a much closer race, with many more states still up for grabs. Basically, this election is still a toss-up, and…likely to be much closer than in 2008.