Via The New York Times:
Latinos who are registered voters favor President Obama by 69 percent to 21 percent over Mitt Romney, according to a national poll published on Thursday by the Pew Hispanic Center. The margin has not changed during this year despite recent efforts by Mr. Romney to lure some Latinos.
The “browning” of America is bad news for a party that runs explicitly on white resentment. The poll was concluded only one day after the first presidential debate so Romney’s bump is not reflected. Regardless, Romney has been trying desperately to court the Latino vote after throwing it under the bus during the primaries. It hasn’t worked out very well.
By way of comparison, President Obama is currently leading Romney by a greater margin that he did in 2008 when he dominated John McCain 67 to 31 percent among Latino voters. Further, Romney is lagging 96 to 0 percent among African Americans. While the African American voting block is growing, it is the Latino demographic that is exploding.
As of the 2010 census, Latinos make up 16% of the population up from 11% in 2000. Projections place that number at 30% by only 2050. The majority of this growth is located in the South, the most reliable of Republican voting blocks. Once states like Texas and Florida become irrevoccably “brown,” the GOP’s chances of winning national elections becomes effectively zero.
It is possible that the GOP will move to the center by 2016 and attract a greater number of Latino voters but this would be at the expense of the angry white racist vote, which the GOP has almost solely relied upon. Appealing to both groups at the same time is a needle that simply can’t be threaded. The GOP is aware of this and is currently doubling and tripling down on pursuing the diminishing returns of southern bigot vote. Where this leaves them for the midterms and the next presidential election remains to be seen.
In the meantime, the GOP will continue to try and suppress the minority vote with Voter ID laws, purging legal voters from the voting rolls and similar corrupt practices. Desperate people will resort to desperate measures and the specter of Texas turning blue is enough to give Karl Rove nightmares.