It seems like lately we’ve been hearing nothing but good news about the United States economy as it finishes recovering from the crushing recession. The numbers are in (PDF) from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, and economic growth is much better than even expected.
The report is quite clear that these are preliminary numbers:
The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see box below). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2012.
However, due to the expanding housing market, lower unemployment and a variety of other factors, it is unlikely that these numbers would change for the worst. In fact, BBC reports:
Last month, the US unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, down from 8.1%, its lowest since January 2009 when Mr. Obama’s term in office began.
Nigel Gault, chief US economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “There is prospect that we could do better next year if we could clear up some of the uncertainties, particularly the fiscal cliff.
Continuing good news from the economic sector spells nothing but bad news for the Romney campaign, as numbers such as these are difficult to put a negative spin on and his entire platform against President Barack Obama is the slowly recovering economy. However, the economy, which has been steadily growing since June of 2009, appears to be nearly completely recovered, contrary to what conservative news sources, pundits and politicians try to claim.
BBC reports on U.S. growth over the last quarter:
Federal government expenditures and gross investment increased 9.6% compared with the previous quarter, while national defence spending rose by 13%. The Commerce Department said there was a jump in personal consumption as well.
A drought in the US, which was the worst for 50 years, cut farm output and took 0.4 percentage points off the GDP figures, the Commerce Department said.
The only question now is, “how are Republicans going to make this negative?” Because final numbers on the third quarter won’t be released until November 29 (well after the presidential election is over), they will likely have “experts” quick to say that this is too soon to make that assumption and we really won’t know until the second report comes out. While there is a point to that, it is unlikely that those numbers will show anything but a higher degree of growth than previously expected.
Romney, however, has already tried to give this news a negative spin; he has stated (wrongly) that this growth is not enough to create jobs (and that’s why unemployment is falling) or increase take-home pay. He has also said that he’ll make it grow faster, but still has not revealed details as to how this will happen.
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