538 Poll Update Of Republican DOOM! Obama’s Chances Of Winning At 81.1%

Author: November 2, 2012 6:32 pm

Continuing our daily coverage of number guru Nate Silver’s 538 blog at the New York Times, we’re in the home stretch and Obama is certainly stretching his legs as he continues to put distance between himself and the Romney campaign. Ignore the breathless reporting on the national polls; that’s just an audience hungry media dying for attention in a race that has never shown Romney reaching 270 electoral votes even once.

Up from 79.0% chance of winning and 300.4 electoral votes from 11/1. The percentage may go up but I think the electoral votes might be maxed out. Winning more than 303 votes seems improbable at this late date.


Here’s the swing state breakdown:

Colorado: 65.7% Chance of an Obama win  (Up from 62.6%)

Florida: 55.9% Romney  (Down from 58.8%) If this crosses over to even a slim Obama lead by election day, Mitt better hope the GOP puts their electron fraud into high gear.

Iowa: 79.6% Obama  (Up from 78.4%)

Nevada: 87.2% Obama (Up from 85.2%)

New Hampshire: 78.7% Obama (Up from 75.2%)

North Carolina: 81.1% Romney (Up from 80.8%) Look! Good news for Romney! 

Ohio: 80.7% Obama (Up from 79.9%) Look! Bad news for Romney!

Virginia: 64.8% Obama (Significantly up from 61.3%) Virginia going to Obama is game over. Romney is going to have to rely on a lot of “irregularities” to carry the election.

Wisconsin: 93.0% Obama (Down from 88.0%) I think Wisconsin just went from “swing state” to “Obama win.”

There is talk among liberal pundits that if Obama wins the electoral college but Romney “wins” the popular vote, the GOP will use this as an excuse to “investigate” the election and declare Obama an illegitimate candidate. If they’re lucky, they can force it to go to the Supreme Court for a repeat of the 2000 “election.”

Even if you live in a solid blue state like New York, your vote WILL count! Get out there and vote!

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